Hoosier State rivals square off in West Lafayette

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - West Lafayette, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of in-state rivals jockeying for position in the competitive Big Ten Conference meet at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette this evening, as the 20th-ranked Indiana Hoosiers tangle with the Purdue Boilermakers.

Indiana was one of the top teams in the country through the first two months of the season, but the Hoosiers have come back to Earth since the start of conference play, logging a 5-6 mark against their Big Ten brethren. Still, at 17-6 overall, coach Tom Crean's club has enjoyed a solid season, and one that would be deemed even better if it can win tonight. IU is coming off a 68-56 loss at Michigan, which dropped its record in true road games this year to 3-5.

Purdue is a solid 15-7 on the season, and the team has won five of its first nine Big Ten bouts. The Boilermakers are 10-2 at home in 2011-12, and they will try to earn a little redemption following a 66-64 setback to visiting Michigan in their last game in front of the PU faithful. Coach Matt Painter's squad picked up a 58-56 win at Northwestern earlier this week for just its third win in the new year.

Purdue leads the all-time series with Indiana, 112-84, and the Boilermakers have won the last five meetings. It is their longest winning streak over the Hoosiers since capturing seven in a row from 1968-72.

Jordan Hulls drained four three-pointers in scoring 18 points, and Cody Zeller logged a double-double consisting of 11 points and 12 rebounds, but those efforts went for naught as Indiana dropped an eight-point decision to Michigan on Wednesday night. The Hoosiers shot 44.7 percent from the field, compared to 47.8 percent by the Wolverines, and the visitors were guilty of 14 turnovers while also suffering a 15-9 deficit in points from the foul line. UM outscored IU in the paint (24-18) and off turnovers (17-6), and the Maize and Blue had three players finish in double figures as the home team dropped nine three- pointers in the game. Zeller (15.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 32 blocked shots) continues to pace the club in scoring, rebounding and blocks, while Christian Watford (12.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg), Hulls (12.2 ppg, 3.3 apg) and Victor Oladipo (10.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg) join him as members of Indiana's double-digit scorers' club. The team as a whole is putting up 78.5 ppg in hitting 49.9 percent of its total shots, which includes a 43.5 percent showing from three-point range, while at the same time permitting 65.9 ppg on typical shooting efforts of .426 overall and .332 from beyond the arc.

Purdue got 14 points from Terone Johnson, 12 from D.J. Byrd and 11 from Robbie Hummel, and needed every one of them as the Boilermakers slipped past Northwestern on the road earlier this week. Both teams shot 44.4 percent from the field, but the Wildcats committed 16 turnovers to just five for the Boilermakers, who won the game despite being outrebounded (37-23) and outscored at the foul line (8-4). Hummel (15.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 26 blocks) leads his team in the same categories Indiana's Zeller does his, and Lewis Jackson (10.2 ppg, 3.9 apg) is PU's only other double-digit scorer on the season. Ryne Smith (9.4 ppg) is close to joining the ranks, and he is the team's top three- point sniper (56-of-134, .418). As a collective unit, the Boilermakers are netting 70.9 ppg behind 43.7 percent field goal efficiency, which includes a 35.2 percent showing from downtown, while the opposition produces 62.8 ppg in hitting 42.5 percent of their total shots and 36.3 percent of their long-range bombs. Purdue takes very good care of the basketball, committing just 9.4 turnovers per game, compared to 14.3 tpg by its opponents.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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